ANALYSIS

W1

On the daily chart of the pair a version of marking of the alternative waves "{d} or {iv}" with basic cycle of optimization of market data in one week is presented.

The events of the previous week confirmed attainment of the key levels, however, relatively high dynamics of the anticipated decline and failure to make up Impulsion structure of decline with daily period of data optimization has caused in depth review of (5)-wave structure of Terminal Impulsion.

The main ideas that should be mentioned are as follows:-Unidirectional (a), (c) and (e) bullish waves tend to extend duration period and to lower amplitude. This sign is treated as indirect showing that the above mentioned waves relate to the same pattern.

-Unidirectional (b), (g) and (e) correction waves also tend to strengthen bearish counteraction either by duration period or by amplitude, which relates them to the same pattern, however, incomplete by this moment. The completion of the pattern may be considered only in case when bearish wave has larger amplitude than the largest bullish wave does. In this case (a)-wave appear to be the largest one combined with limit for incomplete (f)-wave below 1.4460.

The pattern singled out for the fifth Terminal wave has similar signs with NeoWave Diametric pattern, however, classification of this pattern has no real importance at this point, but the signs of unidirectional correction waves combined with the sign of pattern completeness bear real importance here. Pattern structure importance appears to be insignificant as taking into account a series of waves of higher degree, formation of correct and proportional fifth wave pattern is as usual problematical. Therefore, considering such pattern`s tendency to symmetry, it is logical to anticipate its completeness till the end of the year with further strong bearish rally to 1.26 levels during the first 2 or 3 months, but not up to 5 months of the upcoming year of 2010.

Considering preliminary analysis of the chart with daily data optimization period, clear signs of Elaborate correction with further probable rate decline should be seen, however, the downside is expected to be contained above 1.45 level. Next we can assume relatively long period of (g)-wave formation with risk of (f)-wave recovery up to 61.8%

EUR/USD-W1:

Work chart: